Dodgers Three-Peat … Now What?

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A.J. Ellis, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Wood, Andre Ethier, base running, Brett Anderson, bullpen, Carl Crawford, Chase Utley, Chris Hatcher, Citi Field, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Seager, David Wright, Dodger Stadium, experience, home field advantage, Howie Kendrick, J.P. Howell, Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, Juan Uribe, Justin Ruggiano, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, Kike Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Madison Bumgarner, Mike Scott, New York Mets, NL Division Series, NL West pennant, one-hitter, San Francisco Giants, stolen bases, The Giants, World Series, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Yoenis Cespedes, Zack Greinke

After stumbling by losing eight out of ten games, including a pair of four game losing streaks, the Dodgers finally clinched their third straight NL West crown.  It is the first time in the history of the franchise that they have won three straight of any title.  Fortunately, the Giants weren’t playing much better when the Dodgers slumped and they didn’t gain much ground over that period.  They were only able to cut the Dodger lead from 8½ games to 6 games.

Clayton Kershaw (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Clayton Kershaw’s second straight complete game victory over the Giants in the month of September finally brought the Dodgers the crown on September 29.  His one-hit shutout was the second best pennant clinching performance in major league history, bested only by Mike Scott’s no-hitter for the Astros against the Giants in 1986.  Kershaw held up his half of the expected pitching duel against Madison Bumgarner, the Giants hero in their championship run last year.  But “MadBum” was reached for four runs, including three home runs, as Dodger bats came alive for the 8-0 win.

As play began on September 30, the Dodgers had five games to play and they were one game behind the Mets to determine who would have home field advantage for their NL Division Series matchup.  Since the Mets have the tie-breaker in their favor should the teams end up with the same records, the Dodgers need to win two more games than the Mets by the end of the season.  With so few games remaining, that is not a likely scenario.  Both teams will be looking to give their starters some down time and get their starting pitchers lined up for the postseason.

(Since that was originally written, the Dodgers and Mets are now tied with the same 89-70 record.)

But who are the starters for the Dodgers right now?  Adrian Gonzalez at first base is about the only sure thing, and he just came back after a couple of games off with a pinched nerve in his neck.  Expect him to be given plenty of rest until the playoffs.

Behind the plate, Yasmani Grandal has been the starter most of the year.  But A.J. Ellis has been swinging a hot bat at the end of the season (for the third straight year after disappointing output for the first 5 months each year).  Meanwhile, Grandal has struggled offensively lately with shoulder problems.

At second base, Howie Kendrick has returned from an injury.  If he is ready to play every day, late season veteran acquisition Chase Utley will be on the bench, able to back up at every infield position except shortstop.  At shortstop, Jimmy Rollins has returned from a finger injury, but Corey Seager has swung a hot bat since coming up from the minors.  However, he has made five errors in only 18 games started at shortstop.  Justin Turner will get the starting nod at third base.  While his knees will not allow him to start more than three days in a row, there are two travel days scheduled during the best of five series.

The outfield is a real muddle.  Rookie Joc Pederson rode a homer filled early season and a plethora of miraculous catches to a berth in the All Star Game.  But he was already slumping by the time that game was played and while his defense is still dazzling, his offense has been mediocre for most of the season.  He might not even be named to the roster now that Kike Hernandez is back from a hamstring injury.  Kike returned to the lineup with four straight hits, including one of the homers off of Bumgarner.  He won the center field job from Pederson and Pederson did little to win it back in his absence.  A resurgent Andre Ethier figures to start most of the games in right as the Mets starting rotation is dominated by right-handed pitching.  Regarding the Mets two lefty starters, rookie Steven Matz is questionable with back problems and Jon Niese has not pitched well this season, especially down the stretch.  Justin Ruggiano was added to the roster because he is murder on left-handed pitching.  At most, he might see action as a pinch hitter.  If Pederson stays on the roster, Ruggiano will be left off.  Left-handed swinging Carl Crawford, hitting .315 in September, should get most of the starts in left field.  It is not expected that Yasiel Puig will be back in time for the Mets series and he quite possibly may miss the rest of the season, even if the Dodgers get past the Mets.

Zack Greinke and Kershaw might be called on to start two games each if the series against the Mets goes the distance.  Alex Wood or Brett Anderson will get the nod for Game 3.  Kenley Jansen is certain as the Dodgers closer.  After a terrible start to the season and an injury, Chris Hatcher has become a more dependable pitcher as the Dodgers were hoping for.  J.P. Howell will be effective if rested enough.  He ran out of gas at the end of last season.  The rest of the bullpen will be mix and match and hope that Greinke and Kershaw can take them deep into games without requiring the bullpen too much.

The key for the Dodgers to win the series against the Mets is for Greinke and Kershaw to dominate and the Dodgers to generate just enough offense against Mets starting pitching (which hasn’t been quite as strong down the stretch) to keep the games from turning into a battle of the bullpens.  The Dodgers also have to hope that their late season roster changes will help them more than the changes the Mets have made since the teams faced each other in two series in July.  The Dodgers have seen a much better performance in their bullpen lately.  And after a first half with almost no stolen bases and conservative base running in general, they are stealing bases and taking the extra base on base hits far more often.

One hopeful sign for the Dodgers is that while they struggled against teams with winning records for much of the season, from the time they rebounded from a five game losing streak against AL West teams through their pennant clincher, they were 9-5 against teams with winning records.  But the Mets offense has become far more potent since their acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes from Detroit at the trade deadline, calling up Michael Conforto, and picking up Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe from Atlanta.  They have also gotten offensive threats David Wright and Travis D’Arnaud back from injuries in August.

The Mets as a team have less playoff experience than the Dodgers do, but that doesn’t seem to be as big a factor as it used to be.  Younger players aren’t awed by such situations like they were in previous decades.

Seeing that these are quite different teams than the ones that faced each other in July, this series is difficult to prognosticate.  Assuming that the Mets will retain home field advantage, it is difficult to be optimistic regarding the Dodgers chances.  And if they do advance, they will either face the Cardinals for the third straight year or another team (Pirates or Cubs) that has also won more games than they have during the regular season.  The road to the World Series will be an uphill one for the team with by far the largest payroll.

The Mets are a team that I grew up following from their very first spring training.  When the Dodgers aren’t involved, I root for them.  So I don’t have strong emotions about this series as I might against many other teams.

I am working on some new posts that should be published soon.

And Abner said to Joab, Let the young men now arise, and play before us. And Joab said, Let them arise. – 2^nd Samuel 2:14

God bless,

Lois

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Mid-season Review – 2015

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Adrian Gonzalez, Alberto Callaspo, Alex Guerrero, All-Star Team, Andre Ethier, Billy Beane, Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson, Carl Crawford, Clayton Kershaw, Darwin Barney, Dee Gordon, defense, Farhan Zaidi, Howie Kendrick, Hyun-Jin Ryu, J.P. Howell, Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, Juan Uribe, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, Kike Hernandez, Los Angeles Dodgers, Mike Bolsinger, National League, NL West, offense, power hitter, San Francisco Giants, Scott Van Slyke, speed, starting pitcher, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Greinke

A combination of residual problems in setting up a new computer, a bit of a stomach bug and inertia, and increased social activity has kept me away from the blog keyboard for a while.  I hope to correct that in the coming weeks.  But as we are in the midst of the All-Star break, the time lends itself to a review of the baseball season … which of course means how the Dodgers are doing.

Dodger Stadium (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The good news is that the Dodgers are leading the NL West by 4½ games.  They have led for most of the season, and when challenged for the lead by the Giants a few weeks ago while the Dodgers cooled off, they always managed to cling to first place, even if by ½ game.

The Dodgers’ goals in the off-season included a more balanced lineup, a team that performed better in clutch late-inning situations, and a better team attitude from the clubhouse to the field.  Having put five players on the All-Star team for the first time since 1995, there is some indication that they achieved the first objective.  Their 4-3 record in extra innings is nothing to write home about.  But it’s a far cry above their 6-12 mark last year.  They have been much better when trailing in the late innings and in bases loaded situations.  And the clubhouse/on field attitude appears to be good enough that they could afford to trade veteran Juan Uribe, a respected presence who did much to hold the team together the previous two seasons.

Let’s look at how the Dodgers have compared to my preseason review.

Starting pitching – My concern about lack of depth has been justified.  Hyun-Jin Ryu will miss the whole season and newcomer Brandon McCarthy went down early and is also lost for the rest of the year.  Brett Anderson has pitched well for a number five starter, but now he has been pushed up to number three.  Mike Bolsinger, unwanted by Arizona after his rookie season has filled the number four spot surprisingly well.  Carlos Frias has been the number five starter most often.  Inconsistent, he is currently on the disabled list with lower back tightness and is early in his rehab phase.  Beyond them, the cupboard is bare.  The Dodgers number one need right now is another quality starter to join All-Stars Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw.

Relief pitching – The field for roster spots in the bullpen was crowded in spring training.  With injuries and a revolving door between the big club and their minor league teams, the crowd pretty much remains.  Veteran Brandon League was released when the Dodgers were dissatisfied with his recovery from injury.  Kenley Jansen has pitched very well since returning from a foot injury.  J.P. Howell has been lights out, but the Dodgers don’t want to repeat last year’s mistake and burn him out by September.

Catching – After a slow April, Yasmani Grandal was the expected upgrade at this position, showing lots of home run power and a strong throwing arm thwarting base stealers.  He was named to the All-Star Team.  His offensive numbers have been far better so far than Matt Kemp, for whom he was traded.  A.J. Ellis, now in a backup role, is starting to show a little more offense recently, batting .325 in his last 15 games.

Infield – Adrian Gonzalez was named to the All-Star Team at first base.  He continues to drive in much needed runs and field his position well.  Howie Kendrick at second has been steady, as expected, but has been outplayed at the plate, on the bases and in the field by the player he replaced, Dee Gordon.  Kendrick is at the peak of his career and eligible for free agency.  Gordon is still a rising star, and was named the starting second baseman on the NL All-Star Team, an honor which he deserved.  With the loss of Gordon and his speed, the Dodgers put much less pressure on the opposing team’s defense.  In general, they do not seem to be running the bases as aggressively.  That could be an influence of the more statistical driven types in the front office, including Farhan Zaidi, the new General Manager and former assistant to Billy Beane in Oakland.

Jimmy Rollins has sparkled at shortstop and combines well with Kendrick.  But he has struggled at bat all season and he has clearly lost a step or two on the bases.  Justin Turner has been a consistent performer and a key run producer while manning third base.  He needs to be rested at least once a week, and most of that playing time has been given to Alberto Callaspo (received when Uribe was traded) over Alex Guerrero.

Outfield – Injuries struck down Carl Crawford once again after only 15 games and his rehab assignment has been slow as he basically needs to redo Spring Training.  Yasiel Puig has been able to play in less than half of the Dodger games this year after six weeks on the disabled list with hamstring problems and then blisters on his hand.  While he still uncorks powerful throws on a steady basis, he has been much less dynamic at the plate.  He is one of the keys to the Dodgers reviving the offense they showed early in the season, but it remains to be seen if he will bounce back from the injuries in the second half.  Progress has been slow.  With those two players sidelined, it gave a golden opportunity for Andre Ethier to show that he is still capable of being a quality major league starter.  The question remains as to what the Dodgers will do when Crawford returns.  When Ethier was on the bench more in the second half last year, his power diminished to the point where he didn’t homer after June 30.  Playing regularly this year, he already has ten homers compared to four all last year.

Rookie centerfielder Joc Pederson has already made some of the most spectacular catches I’ve ever seen and launched 20 homers, many of the tape measure variety. Those helped him get named to the All-Star Team.  But he has also struck out over 100 times in 90 games.  A while he has been adept at working out walks, his batting average has been dropping each month and now his home run output is falling.  And he hasn’t been able to carry over his stolen base prowess to the majors.  Defensively, he is not a flash in the pan.  It remains to be seen if he is just a brief meteor in the major league sky offensively.

Bench – Kike Hernandez can play any infield or outfield position, although his experience at first base is limited.  His versatility helped him stay in the majors over Darwin Barney who returned to the minors due to lack of roster room.  Both are able to contribute offensively.  Barring a deal with another team, Barney with a few years as a major league starter is probably higher on the depth chart at second base or shortstop if either Kendrick or Rollins gets hurt.

Scott Van Slyke continues to provide power off the bench.  He could probably start in the outfield or first base for a few teams in the majors.  Callaspo has benefitted offensively from a change of scenery after being acquired from Atlanta.  He has filled in nicely when Turner needs to rest his knees.  Guerrero has been relegated mostly to the outfield, but has lost playing time once Puig and Van Slyke returned from the disabled list.  He was named the NL Rookie of the month in April with 5 homers and 13 RBI’s in only 26 at bats.  After a game winning pinch grand slam homer in Colorado on June 3, he has gone into a power slump and his playing time has diminished.  Power hitters are notoriously streaky and Guerrero is no exception.  His problem is that the Dodgers are still convinced that he is a terrible defensive player and don’t give him the opportunity to play through a slump.  Since he intends to exercise an option in his contract to refuse an assignment to the minors, the Dodgers will have to make a decision on what to do with him when Crawford returns from rehab.

Bottom Line – After getting off to a good start, the Dodgers have coasted in recent weeks, benefitting from the fact that no one else in their division has been able to put together a consistent winning effort.  The Giants have been nipping at their heels, though and can’t be counted out.  As things stand right now, even if the Dodgers capture their division crown for the third straight year, they can’t be given much of a chance to advance to the World Series.  Even if they can get by Washington, their recent nemesis, St. Louis, looms on the horizon as the dominant team in the National League.  For the Dodgers to have a decent chance, they need that third quality starter and an offensive rebound from Puig, Pederson and Rollins.

My next post will also be a little about baseball, but from a more personal perspective.  And some gender topics will also be addressed.

So David prevailed over the Philistine with a sling and with a stone, and smote the Philistine, and slew him; – 1^st Samuel 17:50a

God bless,

Lois

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Pitchers and Catchers Report!

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2015 baseball season, Adrian Gonzalez, Al Lang Field, Alex Guerrero, Andre Ethier, Bill Murray, brutally cold, catchers, Clayton Kershaw, Dee Gordon, Glendale Arizona, Hanley Ramirez, harbingers of spring, Hot Stove League, Howie Kendrick, Jimmy Rollins, Joc Pederson, Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers, Matt Kemp, New York City, NL West Division, pitchers, Spring Training, St. Petersburg Florida, Vero Beach Florida, winter, Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Zack Greinke

In the New York City area, winter can get pretty tiresome by the end of February.  And this winter has been especially brutally cold.  We have been describing it as a break in the weather if the daytime high has gotten above freezing.  I can’t remember the last time the overnight low was above freezing.  Nighttime temperatures have been routinely falling below 20º.  Single digits have been frequent and we have even seen a few nights below zero.

At least one creature has confirmed the harshness of our winter.  Snowy owls have been seen in New York City.  They rarely venture this far south.

By this time, people in my area are grasping for signs of spring.  Groundhog Day is a somewhat nonsensical reminder, even if one of Bill Murray’s four homes is in the same county where I live.  Is it better if the groundhog sees his shadow or doesn’t see it?

Some people look to the calendar for the vernal equinox.  (But don’t fall for that bit about balancing the egg on end.  If you have the right egg and a steady hand, you can do it any day of the year.)

Others look for the first robin, or the geese flying north, or the first flowers pushing through the snow or the first buds on the trees.  As a professional tax preparer, I know that tax season also means the coming of spring.  But I have seen 80º weather in my area in early March and ten inch snowfalls in early April.  So I need to have at least some of the entire spectrum of my wardrobe handy throughout.

When I was growing up, there was one sure sign that spring was coming.  That was the day you knew your favorite team’s pitchers and catchers would report to spring training camp.  Football season ended with the bowl games on New Year’s Day, and then eventually with the pro football championship games in early January.  Hockey and basketball were something to tide you over.  And since the Rangers and Knicks generally had losing teams in those years (in the old Madison Square Garden on 8^th Avenue between 49^th and 50^th Streets), there wasn’t much to cheer you by February.  Even the NYC area racetracks were closed and the races were being reported from places like Hialeah, Gulfstream, Fair Grounds, Hollywood Park and Santa Anita.

But there were always stories about baseball.  The Hot Stove League was what they called it.  Would that big trade help the team in the upcoming season?  Did it fill a big hole in the lineup without giving up too much in return?  Could that kid in the minors who had a great season make the jump to the majors?  Could the veteran star player do it one more time?  What about the players trying to come back from injuries?

But then it was time for the pitchers and catchers to report.  And the sportswriters who covered your team, lucky stiffs, traveled south to follow and report on the team.  Stories were filed from exotic or otherwise little known places like St. Petersburg, Fort Lauderdale, Tucson, Vero Beach, Clearwater, Palm Springs and Winter Haven.  Snow, slush and ice might still lurk outside your front stoop and you still had to bundle up with scarf, gloves and heavy coat.  But every day in the newspaper, there were pictures of smiling, athletic young men in the sunshine with palm trees or cacti in the background.  Soon, on a Saturday in early March, there would be the sounds of the first exhibition game.  For years, that meant Mets vs Cardinals at Al Lang Field, the spring training home they shared in St. Petersburg.

Then the teams started sending players down to the minors or releasing them outright.  Most were expected but there were always a few surprises.  Those last few cuts generated speculation and discussion between knowledgeable fans.  And finally, the teams were heading north.  Opening day was coming!  The season would start with only two games: one in Cincinnati for the National League and one in Washington, DC for the American League (where the President of the United States traditionally threw out the first ball).  The regular season and the games that counted in the standings were finally here.  And in sweatshirts, sweaters and light jackets, we were starting to play ball outside, too.  But it all started with “pitchers and catchers report.”

By the way, no one seems to know why it came to be believed that pitchers need a longer time to get ready for the season.  It’s simply been done that way for a long time so they keep doing it that way.  And of course, if you have people pitching, you need catchers to catch them.  As if they needed any more wear and tear on their knees.

Spring Training, Vero Beach, Florida, 1994, by Rick Dikeman 02:41, 10 February 2004 . . Rdikeman . . 300×202 (23 KB) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I was never able to get to Florida or Arizona for Spring Training.  In the summer of 2007, I drove past the Dodgers complex when it was still in Vero Beach, but didn’t see a way to enter and tour it.  Ironically, I have a client who moved to Glendale around the time the Dodgers moved their spring training facilities to that city in Arizona.  But with only two clients in Arizona, it doesn’t justify making a trip during tax season to visit them personally.

Meanwhile, it is with hopeful apprehension that I await the 2015 baseball season.  Despite winning the NL West Division with 94 victories, the Dodgers made major changes in the off-season, hoping to improve team chemistry for the post-season contests and deal with what was seen as a glut of starting outfielders.  It is likely that half of their starting lineup will be different in 2015.  Their top three starting pitchers, the rival of any team in baseball, will return.  But their number four and five starters will not only be different, they are question marks because of a history of injuries.  And not only has there been a major overhaul of the bullpen, their closer, Kenley Jansen, recently had foot surgery and will miss the first three to seven weeks of the season.

Significant players leaving the team were free agent Hanley Ramirez, still a powerful bat when healthy but becoming a defensive liability at shortstop (he is expected to play leftfield for the Red Sox); 2014 All-Star second baseman Dee Gordon who led the National League in stolen bases last year and whose speed will be missed; outfielder Matt Kemp who recovered from injuries as a hitter in the second half of the season last year, but was taking longer to recover on the base paths and in the field.  The loss of Ramirez was expected: the Dodgers had no place for him in the field and his frequent injuries made him too big of a question mark.  The trade of Gordon to Miami was unexpected and I will miss him.  His speed will not be replaced (it is the one thing you can’t teach) and I felt he was a ballplayer with a rising future.  While it was known that the Dodgers were looking to trade any potential starting outfielder other than Yasiel Puig, my biggest concern over the trade of Kemp was that he was dealt to division rival San Diego.  With the other off-season moves they made this winter, I expect them to battle for the division crown this year and Kemp could come back to haunt the Dodgers in the process.

Veteran shortstop, Jimmy Rollins (acquired from Philadelphia), and steady second baseman Howie Kendrick (picked up from the Angels) are expected to be the new double play combination.  With Rollins being 36 and Kendrick having only a year left on his contract, it could be a very short-term answer.  Yasmani Grandal, the key player received from San Diego in the Kemp trade, provides a major upgrade to the Dodgers catching position.  He will face competition from holdover starter A.J. Ellis.  And there are still question marks in the outfield as rookie Joc Pederson hopes to win the centerfield spot.  If he falters, the Dodgers have to look for a rebound year from former All-Star Andre Ethier, while returning Scott Van Slyke and newcomer Chris Heisey are in the mix.

These are the people that the Dodgers hope will be the supporting cast for Puig, last year’s NL RBI champion, first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, reigning NL MVP and Cy Young Award winner (third time in four seasons for the latter), Clayton Kershaw, and 2014 All-Star and former AL Cy Young winner, Zack Greinke.  Other key players are returnees, pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, third baseman Juan Uribe, outfielder Carl Crawford, and utility infielder Justin Turner.  Newcomers Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson are expected to round out the Dodgers starting rotation, but there is little depth behind them should the injury bug strike any of the starting pitchers.  Other than returning veterans J.P. Howell and Brandon League, the rest of the bullpen spots are up for grabs with at least ten pitchers competing for the remaining four positions (plus one who will take Jansen’s place until he returns).

I am hopeful that the team will benefit by not diverting their preparations for the season as happened last year with a trip to Australia for their first two games scheduled games of the regular season.  I am also hopeful for a good year as a reserve player from infielder Darwin Barney and for Alex Guerrero to justify the big contract he received from the Dodgers before spending most of his first year of playing outside Cuba in the minors.  Critics claim that a defensive position cannot be found for him.  But I find it hard to believe that someone who could play shortstop on the Cuban national team and was an All-Star in the best Cuban league cannot play defense at some position in the major league.  Perhaps just as important, I was looking forward to him being a stabilizing influence on Puig, his multi-talented but mercurial countryman.  I am also hopeful that the team will benefit by not diverting their preparations for the season as happened last year with a trip to Australia for their first two games scheduled games of the regular season.

The Dodgers’ first exhibition game will be against the White Sox (with whom they share Spring Training facilities) on March 4.  And then the regular season starts with their home opened on April 6, when they face San Diego.  That’s when all the pre-season predictions no longer matter.  It is what happens on the playing field for 162 games over 6 months that counts.

Play ball!

And Abner said to Joab, Let the young men now arise, and play before us. And Joab said, Let them arise. – 2^nd Samuel 2:14

God bless,

Lois